Ed from Rochester was walking into the Stagecoach when Cody and I walked out, still chewing a Milkbone. (Cody, not me.)

“So, why is Trump doing this to us?” I asked after seeing the yellow licence plate.

Ed hesitated. “I’m sorry about the president,” he muttered. “But I’m still going to come and visit here. Maybe even more, now.”

No wonder. As this pathetic column suggested a few weeks ago, the uncertainty Tariff Man is inflicting upon Canada has squished the Canadian dollar and elevated the greenback. We’re pushing into the mid 60-cent range now.

Bay Street economists are forecasting the loonie could be at 56 cents U.S. before this trade war — now delayed for 30 days — evens out, especially if we’re pushed to retaliate.

So, the stores on Queen Street may be forced to offer $1.40 to the cross-border friendlies soon. Maybe $1.50 by the spring. Or more.

The impact on tourist traffic could be epic. It would be good news for the retail trade, except for the cost of almost everything swelling over the next few months, if the hit comes in March.

Ed — like most Americans — thinks “Canada” pays the tariffs to Washington, so his government would have more money to lower his taxes.

I disabused him. Importers pay, then add the new tax to producer and consumer prices so Americans end up forking over more. Prices go up. The Fed then freezes or increases interest rates. Lousy for Rochester.

Meanwhile, the implications in NOTL and beyond will be deep, if the duties come. Grape growers and wineries, according to a Lake Report story, will be whacked. A tariff of 25 per cent makes sales into the U.S. untenable.

There are fears for the big GM propulsion plant in which more than a thousand people work and where tooling-up for EV engines is taking place. Everybody in that company’s extensive supply chain is impacted.

Canada cranks out $50 billion worth of cars a year, with 93 per cent of them headed south. Parts manufacturer Linamar says layoffs would be here within a week. That company is in the process of building a new facility in Welland, just as Tariff Man threatens.

It’s cutting-edge stuff — a process called gigacasting. Immense high-pressure die-cast aluminum alloy moulding machines will make entire EV chassis segments in one step. Unless, of course, a trade war gets in the way.

What to expect if no truce arrives?

A recession. Swelling unemployment. More expensive food, especially with retaliation. The lower dollar and our own tariffs would hike both prices and inflation. But the Bank of Canada may get the willies in the meantime and drop rates, making mortgages cheaper. Bond yields sure plopped this past Monday morning, suggesting just that.

In the coming weeks, if Trump persists, we’ll be told to gird our loins, shop Canadian, budget harder and turn off CNN. This would hurt a lot of people.

And, believe it or not, there are Canadians who support Donald Trump, thinking this is penance for a porous border allowing fentanyl to gush into America.

Ottawa caved. Now we have a Fentanyl Czar. Even though less than 1 per cent of the drug trade into the States comes from here. The same for folks sneaking across the line. It’s a trickle. Besides, it’s America’s job to keep stuff out — not ours to prevent it from entering. That’s how borders work.

Trump needed a national emergency in order to override the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade deal and bypass Congress with an executive order. So, he manufactured this one. It’s a ruse. It’s deeper than that. This is an existential threat to our country.

Become the 51st state?

Fat chance, Ed.

Garth Turner is a NOTL resident, journalist, author, wealth manager and former federal MP and minister. garth@garth.ca