Well, the house on the corner in Old Town is still for sale. Since this pathetic weekly column started (you’re reading No. 99), it has sat fully renovated yet deeply unloved. Prime location. No cigar.
It’s all about price, of course. The first MLS listing was for $3.9 million. Three years later it sits at $3.65 million. That lowly six per cent discount in a few dozen months is not enough for Mr. Market. To sell these days a house must be worth about a third less than in the nutso post-COVID days of 2022.
We’re back to more than 3,000 houses listed for sale across Niagara. That’s pushing a record. Last month only 565 sold, down 10 per cent from the year before. Not so hot.
“With Niagara’s sales-to-listings ratio for May landing at 36 per cent, our regional market is staying firmly planted in a buyer’s market,” says the local real estate board. “But it’s not all doom and gloom friends: the current market reveals the silver lining of an excellent opportunity for those wanting to enter the housing market, and those upsizing.”
Aren’t realtors predictable? There’s always a silver lining. But that’s understandable. Scared people don’t buy houses. Unless they smell a bargain.
This is where NOTL is different, unique. Not like those tatty ‘hoods in the Falls or the Kitty. The average selling price across Niagara is $575,300 — down eight per cent from last spring. But in NOTL the average leaps to $861,300 (compared to $935,000 last year). In the Old Town, the million mark is easily breached.
“We’re halfway through the spring market,” says realtor Angelika Zammit, “and homes over $2 million have gained traction.” She says in April, a fifth of houses listed for sale found buyers. Last month that increased to 40 per cent. And she claims that “prices have stabilized.”
Bad news for the first-time kiddos who thought they could buy a million-dollar place for half-off. This also jives with what TD economist Robert Kavcuc says — that “the price destruction is over.”
Agent Greg Sykes agrees NOTL has stopped falling.
“I don’t believe we’re seeing a broad rebound in prices yet, but I also don’t see evidence of a significant further decline,” he says. “In many segments, prices appear to be stabilizing after the correction we’ve experienced over the past few years. Buyers have become more comfortable with today’s interest rates, and many have accepted that waiting for dramatically lower rates may not be a winning strategy.”
Realistically, buyers who want a house (and can afford one) are now in a time where prices have dropped, inventory is plentiful, competition is scarce, mortgage rates are stable, sellers are motivated (sometimes desperate), bidding wars are rare and conditional offers are a thing again.
Yeah, a buyer’s market. So where are they?
“There are plenty of active buyers who are looking,” says Bosley broker Patrick Burke. “The challenge is that the current listing inventory is clearly divided into two camps. Using broad brushstrokes, the properties that are priced accurately are selling in two or three weeks. The others are hanging around for three or four months.”
Sykes agrees. “Pricing remains everything. The days of ‘testing the market’ with an aspirational price are largely behind us. Homes that hit the market at the right price generate activity quickly, while overpriced listings often sit and become stale.”
And what about the big picture? Why would people be afraid to purchase something they want and costs a whack less than two years ago?
Well, the economy has flatlined. Trump’s war went badly. Inflation is back, so interest rates won’t be falling. That trade deal with the U.S. may be cooked. And lots of folks are afraid AI will eat their jobs in the next year or two — a big worry especially for white-collar locals who work remotely instead of trekking to the Big Smoke.
But people still want houses. And, of course, everyone wants to live here. The realtors are pumped.
Just bring cash.
Garth Turner is a NOTL resident, journalist, author, wealth manager and former federal MP and minister. garth@garth.ca
