More than three million people come to this town each year. They love it. So do those who live here. Until they have to sell their house.

The latest stats are in. They underscore what a unique place Niagara-on-the-Lake is and why leaving it has become more difficult in 2024.

First, we’re swimming in listings. It’s a record — in fact, the number of available houses is more than 60 per cent above the 10-year average.

Meanwhile sales are 22 per cent below the same average. And half those offers are conditional on buyers being able to sell their existing digs. Good luck with that.

So if supply is overwhelming demand, shouldn’t prices be crumbling?

Of course not, silly. This is NOTL. We have black horses pulling white wagons driven by comely girls in top hats. We hold supercar shows on the main drag. We sell two ounces of gelato for seven bucks. We have flower gardens the Babylonians would envy. Plus wineries that look like Tuscan castles and airport terminals. How can we not be special?

Yes, we are. And the housing market reflects that. Good and bad.

Prices have barely budged even as inventory piles up. In fact, among current MLS listings 65 per cent of all those in NOTL are priced over a million bucks. Almost a quarter are asking more than $2 million.

And a staggering 12 per cent are $5 million or greater. (Compare that with the entire GTA at 48, 16 and three per cent respectively. Now you know where the “other” people live.)

But wait. High prices bring issues. Veteran local broker Doug Rempel is now calling it a “logjam.” Agent Andrew Perrie says buyers are “fatigued” and “want a deal.”

So while it takes, on average, just over 40 days to sell a house across the entire Niagara Region, in NOTL that soars to an extreme 102 days. For places over $2 million, that’s actually been running at over 300 days. For the two houses bookmarking my street (both at $4 million), those for sale signs may well decay before a buyer shows up.

Have we priced ourselves out of the economic reality in which most Canadians live?

Of course. Special, remember? We have that regal lord mayor. We had an actual war, with cannonballs, brigs and schooners. And every weekend we bow down to the god of a different tender fruit.

“There’s no doubt this can be defined as a buyer’s market,” says Rempel, “but in my opinion, once the logjam breaks, demand will absorb the inventory and in 2025 supply and demand is likely to move us into a more balanced market and potentially increased prices.”

And what about mortgage rates? The Bank of Canada has chopped twice. Mr. Market is predicting a third drop in the central bank rate just after Labour Day and then again before Christmas. Home loans are already available in the four per cent range and by this time next year should be three per cent. Maybe even a tad less. Won’t that bring the buyers flocking to town?

“Honestly, I genuinely believe the next cut will make a big difference,” says Perrie. “Buckle up!”

And all the realtors have the same seller advice. Yes, this place is pricey, unique and atmospheric, but it’s not Manhattan or Soho. Be realistic.

“Just because you’ve owned your home for a couple of years,” cautions Perrie, “doesn’t automatically award you a couple hundred thousand in equity.”

Good message. But few are listening. Prices are stuck on hold — with a few exceptions. New listings are valued like we’re back into that crazy pandemic funk. Reductions are rare. 

If the interest rates keep falling, sellers figure, buyers will come. Who doesn’t want to dwell in paradise? Just bring cash.