Folks are roiled a 40-unit housing project may rise abruptly on Mary Street. More are fumed 20-storey towers were approved for Glendale. The uproar over turning the Rand Estate into houses is endless. Weeks ago citizens even protested outside a council meeting.

They had signs. Megaphones. They yelled and cursed. The lord mayor looked, well, scared.

Maybe we should ask why this is happening. What’s made politicians at all levels jump on the development caboose? Do we need more population? Are we short of houses? 

Leaders say so. Look at the province. Two years ago, the Ford government passed the More Homes Built Faster Act. This year, it passed the Cutting Red Tape to Build More Homes Act.

Ontario has actually set targets for new home construction by local cities and towns. The big provincial goal is 1.5 million new places within seven years — which it will fail to meet. Utterly.

The feds are at it, too. The Trudeau gang wants four million places thrown up by 2031 (this also will fail). Bribe money’s going to municipalities that trash zoning restrictions, while Ontario weakens heritage regs. The Conservatives (itching to take the wheel) have a build-or-be-punished approach almost identical to the Libs.

So, everyone’s gung-ho — except the citizens affected. The logic seems simple: more houses will make them cheaper so your kid can buy one.

But it won’t. Nor do we have a housing crisis. Instead, there’s an affordability one.

Let’s look around here for some clarity. No shortage. In fact, a house glut.

Last month was the fifth in a row for record real estate listings in NOTL. The available property count is running 50 per cent above long-term averages.

An incredible 3,217 Niagara houses are up for grabs — a third of them vacant. Despite the vast selection, demand is shallow and sales are close to an historic low.

So if we really have a housing crisis and need tough laws to force building, what’s this all about? Where are the buyers?

Not only are first-timers MIA, but the move-up ones are stuck. Local broker Doug Rempel tells me 60 per cent of all the offers currently in play are conditional on buyers selling their old place.

And they’re struggling. The average number of days it takes to bail out is 121. Yikes.

So months of inventory is stacking up in NOTL – currently about a year (in Toronto it’s 4.1 months for singles, 6.7 for condos). Locally, only Fort Erie is as bad.

What about interest rates? The Bank of Canada has chopped three times, with two more expected by Christmas. Has that greased the market? “Many sellers have the theory that there is an instant impact to the market when the bank reduces rates,” says Rempel.

“We haven’t seen that yet. As of today, September 2024 is on pace to be the fourth consecutive month with sales 25 to 30 per cent below the 10-year average. That’s an important stat to share with sellers who are feeling overly courageous with their pricing.”

You bet. As noted here last week, NOTL prices are down a hundred grand (or nine per cent) on average. But as rates continue to fall, that might reverse.

The bottom line: way more houses than people looking to buy.

So why are politicians in town, at Queen’s Park and in Ottawa so fired up about fast-tracking development while roughshodding over the locals? 

Building more places with the same land values, labour overhead and material costs won’t make them affordable. Developers aren’t charities.

And now that Ontario has told NOTL to reduce the money it can collect in development charges from builders, property taxes will be rising to pay for new pipes and roads.

This is flawed logic. Those fighting it are heroes.