Days ago the leader of His Majesty’s loyal Canadian opposition was in town to talk to some friendlies.
In response, the editor of The Lake Report ripped Pierre Poilievre a new one for his stance on defunding local media, including this paper. (Relax. I’m a volunteer.)
Ottawa’s “Local Journalism Initiative” helps pay for reporters. Mr. Poilievre claims that buys the Libs favourable coverage. Mr. Editor says get stuffed:
“He panders to a crowd that’s so anti-Liberal, they’re willing to eat up and digest anything he says. He’s hoping that voters so dislike Justin Trudeau that they won’t see beyond his simplistic, bumper-sticker rhetoric.”
Now tell us what you really think.
Well, I know Pierre. We served in Parliament together. He was Stephen Harper’s highly effective attack dog. As Justin Trudeau sinks in the polls, Poilievre rises.
So, if he becomes prime minister later next year, will this newspaper, like the CBC (also targeted for defunding), wither and fall like a diseased grape?
Beats me. The editor can fight that battle. Instead let’s talk about the sexy world of monetary policy because the Con leader wants the Bank of Canada governor’s head on a stick.
He alleges Tiff Macklem is incompetent and created inflation. “I will fire the governor of the central bank to get inflation under control,” he said famously when in Niagara Falls. He also called our central bank, “financially illiterate.”
So what’s the deal? Does this matter? And has Tiff blown his job?
First, the current facts. After the COVID, lockdowns the economy released like a coiled spring. Demand shot up. So did inflation, from 0 per cent to 8 per cent. Ouch.
The central bank raised rates 10 times to cool things off. Mortgages went from 1.5 per cent to 6 per cent. It worked.
Price escalation has dropped sharply (2.5 per cent). There was no recession. No big spike in the jobless rate. It’s what economists call the Holy Grail (or, these days, the Taylor Swift) of policy – a “soft landing.”
Now rates are falling. Three cuts by the Bank of Canada with the most recent happening this week. There are two more to come in 2024, most economists think — so five reductions in one year, with mortgages now in the 4 per cent range and descending.
That (if you’ve been reading this pathetic column lately) is good news for the logjammed NOTL housing market where listings have soared, prices stuck and sales plopped.
But did Tiff cause inflation, as Pierre claims? Or do we just need someone to blame for everything?
The post-pandemic surge came with supply-chain disruption after people were told to stay home, factories and restaurants closed and shipments ceased. Inflation erupted in the U.K., the U.S., across Europe, in Australia and Canada.
Central banks abandoned the cheap rates they’d used to fight COVID and started to hike. It worked here. Our inflation rate peaked lower than in the U.S. Our interest rates came down sooner. In fact, the Bank of Canada, as it turned out, was the first one in the industrialized world to reduce the cost of debt.
In short, inflation was a global bad. Our guys responded. The surge in prices was corralled. Now we have lower mortgages, less inflation, no recession and the International Monetary Fund says our growth will lead the world next year.
How is that a mess?
Yes, houses and groceries still cost too much. And the Liberals may well deserve to be tanked for running up debts, deficits and wokeness.
But if there’s one thing Canada got right in the last four years, it was allowing the central bank do its job. Letting career politicians mess with monetary policy is a sketchy idea.
Better they just tell editors what to do.
Oh, wait …
Garth Turner is a NOTL resident, journalist, author, wealth manager and former federal MP and minister. Email: garth@garth.ca.