First, we talked dogs.
The man on the stool inside Nina’s shop on Queen Street owns a Bernese. “He’d never be docile like that,” he said, waving at my pooch lying prone on the floor hoping for a gelato meltdown.
When I found out Jason was from Rochester, I asked him. “Trump or Harris?”
“Man, I actually regret them both,” he said. “I wish my country could have done better.”
So, Jason agreed with me. Trump’s crazy. He says weird things.
“But that’s exactly why he’s a good president. Because people like Putin are afraid of what he’s going to do. He’ll do anything. I love it. Besides, he’s got experience. He was there. She wasn’t. What’s she done, anyway?”
Of course, he called Harris ‘Ca-maul-a’ instead of “Comma-la’. Just as his favoured president does.
He finished with the main point: “She’s not as strong. You can see that. Can a woman really do that job? Huh? Not a chance.”
Then I told him — if Trump wins and Jason comes back here in a year or two — why his gelato may cost $12 instead of Nina’s current seven bucks.
“He’s bad for Canada. Tariffs. Protectionism. More inflation. Tax cuts. Stronger U.S. dollar. Tumbling loonie. Then rates here go up. We don’t need that.”
Kathy Weiss is the seasoned new boss at the local Chamber of Commerce. NOTL has a tourism economy, she agrees. And guys like Jason, Trumpers or not, keep our bread buttered. The numbers are awesome. Almost three million visitors a year. Last month 27,000 by bus alone. They spend $250 million. This supports six in ten jobs. And 46 per cent of the horde are Americans.
We want more, she says. Maybe not a ton more bodies, but longer stays and bigger spends. Funded by the new accommodation tax, a broad new marketing campaign in the States is ready to go. NOTL may become even more dependent on Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut — and Jason.
But wait. With America cleaved down the middle by political polarization and one candidate wanting to wall off the country more than the other, what danger may lie ahead?
“I would hope the relationship doesn’t change,” says Weiss, “and the freedom we have going across the borders. Depending on who wins, it could become a lot different. Things probably won’t change, unless one gets in who is more like a dictator than liberal. Trump is the unknown.”
Many worry about that. Trump says he wants lower corporate tax, higher trade barriers, less regulation, mass deportations and America-first policies.
“The tax cuts proposed by Trump would be expansionary in nature,” agrees TD economist Tom Feltmate.
“However, funding those cuts by universally increasing tariffs on all of America’s trading partners threatens to disrupt trade flows and destabilize global supply chains — increasing the odds of a global recession …”
Economists tell us this will end in higher prices, rekindled inflation, upward pressure on rates, plus extra deficit and debt in a country which already owes heaps.
Meanwhile Harris advocates more taxes, more spending and more social support — the womanly stuff Jason fears.
One fear is Trump will ultimately tank our dollar, stall the economy and add almost 2 per cent to mortgage rates. But there’s no guarantee, of course, he’d govern with the same machismo as he campaigns. Let’s hope so.
Well, financial markets like lower taxes on oil, Apple and Tesla. They embrace less regulation leading to higher profits. GDP and the greenback will swell. If Trump wins, stocks will probably spurt higher. Good for your portfolio. Not so good for Queen Street.
“We worry about your guy,” I told Jason. So we went back to dog talk. They unite.