“They push their things down to the bottom,” Jane said. “So they don’t get stolen in the night.”
We were sitting at a head table in a hotel banquet room. Wine, roast beef, chocolate cake, name tags. It seemed incongruous to talk about sleeping bags. And women living rough in St. Catharines. But there it was. Reality.
There are 560, she said — and an unknown number of men, many over 65 — homeless and in tents in a city of 140,000.
Jane runs a shelter (Westview Centre 4 Women) where stressed people, a growing number of whom are sex workers, get fed, showered, clothed and (maybe) put on a better path.
She was in this room, sitting beside me, to receive some help from the group I was speaking to. It costs $300,000 a year to care for 200 daily visits. That’s four bucks per day, per woman. Of that annual budget, she must troll for $260,000. The United Way chinks in the rest.
So this night, I was asked to come and discuss the effect of Donald Trump on Niagara-on-the-Lake, Niagara and the well-off people who live here.
As we know, the lion’s share of the economy is tourism and half those folks are Americans. They come for beauty, stability, history, much wine and to spend their $1.30 dollars.
In weeks, Trump will take office. His aggressive cabinet picks suggest what he said in the campaign is what he’s going to do. That has a bunch of economists losing their lunch. The consensus is his agenda will end up whacking Canada.
Worrisome are tariffs. If imposed on all imports (as promised), our country suffers. The economy’s barely growing now, so that would suggest recession and job loss. Lower tax revenues, too. Bigger deficits. Economists at Scotiabank, Desjardins and BMO see our GDP falling, but at the same time, inflation may return as the dollar slumps against the surging greenback.
Interest rate cuts would slow or stop, lest the loonie decline more. In the United States, big tax cuts (on corporations, tips, overtime, retirement incomes) would be stimulative, along with decreased regs and higher incomes resulting from the mass deportation of lower-wage migrant workers.
More U.S. inflation means rates there would likely edge higher, again pushing the dollar while protectionism sheltered American companies and tariffs increased consumer prices. The bottom line is an overheated economy to the south, while we feel some freeze.
You’re a big winner if you have a portfolio of U.S. equities (the S&P 500 might leap another 20 per cent because of Trump), but if you restock grocery store shelves in St. Catharines, not so much.
Scotiabank warns Trump will ultimately double inflation in Canada and later bump up interest rates almost two points. Local realtors wouldn’t be happy campers if mortgages travel into the five to six per cent range again.
And, finally, the experts are saying all that Trump bravado and America-first fist-pumping will backfire in a couple of years. The bond market’s already pricing in higher yields, expecting a bout of inflation and inevitable Fed rate increases.
What should you do to protect your retirement funds, for example? Ensure you have a balanced and diversified global portfolio, ideally of low-cost exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. (If you want to see mine, gratis, just send me an email.)
But wait. What about shepherd Jane’s flock? If you already have nothing, what have you got to lose?
Only everything. Support, opportunity, chances and self-respect. Nobody should have to stuff their clothes or last sandwich into the bottom of a sleeping bag for safety, or tent with a dog protector on a cul-de-sac shadowed by the QEW. But hundreds do, close by.
We should make them great again.
Garth Turner is a NOTL resident, journalist, author, wealth manager and former federal MP and minister.
