⦿ LIVE

In one of Canada’s most competitive toss-up ridings, Conservative MP Tony Baldinelli has been re-elected, defeating Liberal candidate Andrea Kaiser by more than 3,000 votes.

Mark Carney has secured a federal victory with a slim minority government in an election dominated by Donald Trump’s tariff threats and the high cost of living. Stay with us for real-time updates and results throughout the night.

12:48 a.m. – Paige Seburn

Kaiser speaks about her future

Andrea Kaiser told The Lake Report that while she may not be walking away with a win in her riding, she’s still celebrating a victory because of Mark Carney’s success.

“I am absolutely ecstatic,” she said in an interview, adding that her concerns about Pierre Poilievre were a major factor in her decision to run.

“I just felt that this was a moment I had to step up.”

Rather than feeling defeated, Kaiser said she’s thankful for the life she has and for the hardworking volunteers around her.

“I have a beautiful life. I have beautiful volunteers around me who have been working so hard. It’s always an amazing journey, so I’m always grateful.”

“Of course, we all have expectations to work hard and be successful, but at the end of the day, you know, it’s been a Conservative party for 25 years,” she added. “It is what it is.”

As for next steps, Kaiser said she is ready to return to her role as a regional councillor. She will also be leaving in a couple of weeks for work, attending a wine export show in London before heading to Norway.

“I enjoy what I do, and that always makes work not feel like work,” she said, adding that running again in the future is not off the table.

“I said ‘never’ in 2021, and here we are.”

12:29 a.m. – Paige Seburn

Kaiser gives speech to supporters after riding defeat and federal victory

Liberal candidate Andrea Kaiser told supporters there was still much to celebrate — including Mark Carney’s victory — even as results in Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake indicated a loss for the Liberals, with only advance polls left to count and several news outlets calling Conservative incumbent Tony Baldinelli the winner.

Kaiser said she was proud to have run again, motivated by her concerns over Pierre Poilievre potentially becoming prime minister.

“We do have a lot to celebrate tonight in terms of the Liberal government. As many of you know, the reason that I decided to run again was because I was very concerned about a — um — Pierre Poilievre, let’s be honest,” she said.

She said she is relieved and thrilled that Carney will lead the country.

“We are so lucky to have Mark Carney as our prime minister. This is honestly the best result Canada could have hoped for.”

She thanked her campaign team, mentors, volunteers, family and other supporters for their energy and dedication.

11:34 p.m. – Paige Seburn

Crowd at Kaiser campaign party erupts in cheers when  screen shows Carney winning his riding

The crowd was ecstatic to see Carney win his own riding. Moments later, people cheered just as loudly when polls showed Poilievre was on track to lose in his riding, marking an energetic high point in an otherwise tense evening — as Niagara Now called Baldinelli for the Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake riding.

11:31 p.m. – Paige Seburn

‘We’re still waiting for the advanced poll numbers to come in.’

“I understand that the news has called it, but I think we should probably wait another
30, 40 minutes.” – J. Read Leask

11:15 p.m. – Paige Seburn

Baldinelli leading by 2,000 votes

Conservative: 9,999
Liberal: 7,947
Difference: 2,052

11:15 p.m. – Paige Seburn

“I don’t wanna look, it’s making me nervous!”

Shouted an attendee in the crowd of Liberals.

11:13 p.m. – Paige Seburn

‘We’re cautiously optimistic’

Kaiser’s campaign manager, J. Read Leask, said her team is still hopeful. Supporters continued to watch results come in at the Liberal campaign party at Carpaccio Restaurant in Niagara Falls.

11:12 p.m. – Paige Seburn

Noticeable mood shift in Kaiser election party

When a live results screen showed Conservative candidate Tony Baldinelli more than 1,000 votes ahead, the mood at Kaiser’s campaign party shifted.

The lively crowd grew visibly anxious and unsure of what might happen next.

Despite the tension, supporters remained hopeful as more polls reported in.

10:56 p.m. – Julia Sacco

Baldinelli arrives to campaign party, optimistic about re-election

Shortly after a Liberal majority was called federally, Conservative incumbent Tony Baldinelli arrived at Delphi Banquet Hall in Niagara Falls.

Baldinelli greeted supporters and campaign staff before speaking to the media.

He said he is grateful for the overwhelming support from Niagara-on-the-Lake residents.

“I’ve had great friendships and great support from a number of people like the deputy lord mayor, who is not only a good friend but also a supporter,” Baldinelli told The Lake Report.

Baldinelli highlighted his work supporting the Niagara wine industry.

“I’ve actually gotten the support of the party to eliminate the escalator clause on the excise tax,” he said.

Asked how he maintains close relationships with residents while working in politics, Baldinelli said: “Treat people the way you want to be treated, and that’s your way all the way home.”

Baldinelli said he remains optimistic about a Conservative win in the riding, but added, “Until that last ballot is counted, you just never know.”

10:50 p.m. – Paige Seburn

Liberals remain optimistic despite dips in the riding polls

The mood at Kaiser’s campaign party remains optimistic, especially in terms of national results, though tensions have risen slightly as results continue to come in and show a lead for Baldinelli.

10:40 p.m. – Paige Seburn

Baldinelli takes lead in riding

Conservative: 2,609
Liberal: 2,552

10:35 p.m. – Paige Seburn

Gap closing in on Kaiser lead

Liberal: 1,536
Conservative: 1,433

10:30 p.m. – Paige Seburn

Libs looking good with early lead

Liberal: 1,317
Conservative: 1,164

10:23 p.m. – Paige Seburn

Kaiser volunteers hopeful amid early lead

“A lot of people were afraid to put out signs — on all sides — just because it’s so contentious, and, you know, keep the peace in the neighbourhood. We saw a lot of that, especially in the beginning,” said Philip Lococo, Kaiser’s campaign sign chair.

Liberal: 769
Conservative: 695

10:19 p.m. – Julia Sacco

Positive mood at Conservative camp despite early Kaiser lead

Eager Conservative supporters gathered at Delphi Banquet Hall in Niagara Falls to watch votes come in for the Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake riding.

Forty-one per cent of votes were for Conservative incumbent Tony Baldinelli, with 49 per cent for Liberal Andrea Kaiser.

Alana Hurov, founder of NOTL group Jewish Niagara, said she feels optimistic about the riding’s result.

“This election is really pivotal for our community. I hope the Conservatives do win and we can all take a big, deep sigh of relief.”

10:13 p.m. – Paige Seburn

Elections Canada site crashes

The Elections Canada website crashed shortly after polls closed, causing some early panic at Kaiser’s campaign party.

Kaiser’s team had volunteers stationed at every poll, phoning in live results as the night went on.

Although the campaign was not relying on the Elections Canada site for its own numbers, there was noticeable stress when supporters realized they could not access real-time updates.

7:18 p.m. – Andrew Hawlitzky

What you should know about Tony Baldinelli

Background: Tony Baldinelli was born and raised in Niagara Falls, Ont. He earned a degree in political science from McMaster University and a public relations certificate from Humber College. His political career began in 1988 as a legislative assistant to then-MP Rob Nicholson. He later served at Queen’s Park and worked in public relations before returning to Niagara in 2001 to join the Niagara Parks Commission as senior manager of communications and stakeholder relations.

Parliamentary work: Elected as the Conservative MP for Niagara Falls in 2019 and re-elected in 2021, Baldinelli has held roles including deputy shadow minister for transport, special advisor on tourism recovery, and currently shadow minister for tourism. He has served on standing committees including international trade, science and research, and industry and technology.

Campaign: Seeking a third term in the newly formed Niagara Falls–Niagara-on-the-Lake riding, Baldinelli is advocating for strong support of the local wine industry. He supports ending automatic excise tax increases on wine, arguing the measure harms small wineries in NOTL. He says eliminating the escalator tax could save wineries producing 500,000 litres up to $55,000 annually.

Baldinelli has also criticized the Liberal party’s response to drug trafficking and pointed to unemployment and food bank reliance as urgent local issues.

Personal life: Baldinelli resides in Niagara Falls with his wife, Carol, and their son, Daniel. He is known for his long-standing commitment to Conservative values and community involvement.

5:21 p.m. – Paige Seburn

What you should know about Andrea Kaiser

Background: Andrea Kaiser was born and raised in Niagara, the daughter of Italian and Austrian immigrants. She has spent her career growing the local economy and strengthening the community as a business owner, Niagara regional councillor, three-term municipal councillor and volunteer.

For 25 years, Kaiser has worked to open new export markets for Canadian-made products, especially icewine. She is the proprietor of Drea’s Wine Company, a critically acclaimed 100 per cent Ontario-made wine brand.

Current work and life: Kaiser serves as a regional councillor for Niagara Region, elected in 2022. She is vice-chair of the planning and economic development committee and a member of the public health and social services, agricultural policy and action, and budget review committees.

She holds an honours bachelor of arts degree in history and politics from the University of Guelph. She is a single mother of two adult children and a dog mom who loves gardening, cooking, and spending time with family and friends.

Campaign: Kaiser told The Lake Report her focus is on strengthening Canada’s economy and protecting its sovereignty, particularly in response to the current U.S. administration. She hopes to unite Canada and ensure its prosperity.

As a regional councillor, she has advocated for improvements to public services, community safety, fiscal responsibility, and support for working families, seniors, and farmers.

If elected, she planned to defend Canada against Trump’s tariffs, lower the cost of living, make housing more affordable and create good local jobs.

After nearly 15 years in local politics, she says she values honesty, local democracy and seeing real results.