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Niagara Falls
Friday, February 7, 2025
Lake Ontario’s low water levels, explained
Lake Ontario's low water levels are largely due to the effects of Lake Superior's poor conditions. KEVIN MACLEAN/FILE PHOTO

No storm or snowfall can compensate for the upstream deficit bearing down on Lake Ontario right now.

With minimal increases to the water levels predicted in the coming weeks, this is part of a larger issue impacting the Great Lakes system, exacerbated by record-low ice cover on Lake Superior in 2023-2024 and subsequent drought conditions.

“There’s a long cycle that goes traditionally up and down,” said Ron Simkus, known in town for his email blasts to residents and concern over lake levels.

“We’re actually in the down cycle now, so we’re going to see the lake drop exceptionally low,” he said.

Current water levels are three inches lower than last year, six inches lower than January 2023 and four inches below the long-term average for the second week of January, keeping the lake below its February average, he said.

Lake Ontario’s low water levels are largely due to the effects of Lake Superior’s poor conditions.

The record-low ice cover led to massive evaporation, and droughts left Superior with insufficient recharge (the process that replenishes lakes, thanks to precipitation and surface runoff), impacting all downstream lakes.

The International Joint Commission closed the St. Lawrence Seaway in January and is prioritizing efforts to stabilize ice formation in key areas like the Beauharnois Canal — the commission’s first priority in 2025, Simkus said.

Ice cover is critical because it reduces evaporation and supports stable water levels.

Ice coverage across the Great Lakes system is currently at just 10.2-10.9 per cent, far below the historical average of mid-40 per cent.

Superior, the lake most in need, is at only 2.9 per cent coverage and unlikely to reach its 53 per cent historical average in the next six weeks.

Simkus has provided weekly email updates on lake levels for years to combat misinformation and keep residents informed.

“I thought, well, just a minute here, I read all this stuff, so I’ll just put it together in an email and let everybody know. Is it getting better? Is it getting worse?” he said.

In 2019, Simkus’ motivation grew even stronger when he made a prediction about the levels that turned out to be correct.

So far this year, an Arctic blast has brought some ice to the Great Lakes, but coverage remains well below the levels needed to reach historical averages within six weeks.

Lake Superior, the most critical, is far from its target — and likely won’t hit it, said Simkus.

The outlook suggests challenges for Lake Ontario and the broader Great Lakes system, he said.

paigeseburn@niagaranow.com

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