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Niagara-on-the-Lake
Sunday, October 2, 2022
One survey predicts close race in NOTL riding
Incumbent MPP Wayne Gates at the St. David Lioness Market last year. (Evan Saunders)

It’s election day in Ontario and at least one poll predicts a tight race in the Niagara Falls riding, which includes Niagara-on-the-Lake and Fort Erie.

According to analysis by 338Canada, a polling website created by Politico columnist and physics professor Philippe J. Fournier, the riding is a toss up between the Progressive Conservatives and the New Democratic Party.

Incumbent MPP Wayne Gates won the riding by about a 15-point margin four years ago.

iPolitics polling paints a slightly different picture, projecting that New Democrat Gates will take the riding with a comfortable 40.8 per cent of the vote, beating Progressive Conservative candidate Bob Gale by 12 points.

Gates has held the riding for the past eight years.

About 11.25 per cent of the riding's registered voters cast a ballot in the advance poll, a spokesperson for Elections Ontario told The Lake Report.

There were 115,085 registered voters as of April 29, the most recent data available, the agency said.

This equates to about 12,947 advance ballots cast, though Elections Ontario advised more voters may have signed up in recent weeks.
In the 2018 election, a total of 60,032 votes were cast in the riding, meaning more than one-fifth of that number has already been cast before election day this year.

Regardless of which poll an individual chooses to look at, there is one constant theme: Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives are projected to win a second majority as the New Democrats and Liberal Party of Ontario fail to make a significant dent in voter opinion.

Polls open at 9 a.m. on election day, Thursday, June 2. Voters need to check their voter information card for their eligible voting location.