NDP third again as People's Party shows huge jump in support, Green vote slumps badly
The race for Niagara Falls riding was a tight battle for much of the night, but Conservative incumbent Tony Baldinelli managed to pull away and beat Liberal challenger Andrea Kaiser by about 3,500 votes.
With 244 of 245 polls reporting, Baldinelli had 25,920 votes, Kaiser 22,410, the NDP's Brian Barker had 12,414, Peter Taras of the People's Party of Canada polled 5,826 and the Green party's Melanie Holm had 1,343.
Baldinelli's win was his second straight defeat of Kaiser, whom he beat by just over 2,000 votes in 2019. Kaiser's and Barker's vote totals were almost identical to their 2019 results.
The People's Party, which attracted fewer than 1,000 votes in the last election, saw its support rise substantially. The Green party, which ran a very quiet campaign, polled about one-third as many votes as it received in 2019.
HOW THE RESULTS UNFOLDED
Results for the riding, which encompasses Niagara-on-the-Lake, Fort Erie and Niagara Falls, started to roll in around 10 p.m., a half-hour after polls closed.
Baldinelli showed an early lead.
The Conservative candidate showed up to his party at Spyce Lounge in Niagara Falls just after 10 p.m., by which point Kaiser had taken a small lead.
Shortly after that, news outlets started to declare a Liberal win across the country.
At 10:41 p.m., Liberals had 146 seats, claiming a minority government.
Locally at 10:42, 18.37 per cent of the vote had been tallied, with Baldinelli back in the lead (2,062 to the Liberals' 1,939).
At 11:07 p.m., nationally the Liberals had 155 seats with Conservatives at 121. Locally, Baldinelli's lead started to grow, with 6,076 votes for Baldinelli and 5,681 for Kaiser.
In Niagara-on-the-Lake, Baldinelli won both Glendale and St. Davids polling stations. Kaiser won the vote in Old Town, “by a lot,” said Baldinelli's campaign manager Bart Maves.
LOCAL UPDATES:
11:10: Conservative 6,230, Liberal 5,995
11:11: Conservative 6,416, Liberal 5,974
11:15: Conservative 6,745, Liberal 6,284
11:17: Conservative 7,021, Liberal 6,578
11:18: Conservative 7,778, Liberal 7,252
11:20: Conservative 8,451, Liberal 7,764
11:21: Conservative 8,855, Liberal 7,968
11:29: Conservative 9,635, Liberal 8,583
11:31: Conservative 10,103, Liberal 8,949
11:32: Conservative 10,455, Liberal 9,205
11:34: Conservative 10,556, Liberal 9,247
11:35: Conservative 11,138, Liberal 9,708
11:40: Conservative 11,940, Liberal 10,403
11:43: Conservative 12,268, Liberal 10,676
11:45: Conservative 12,319, Liberal 10,733
11:48: Conservative 12,388, Liberal 10,776 (Niagara Now declares Tony Baldinelli the winner with 75.51 per cent of votes reported from 185 of 245 polling stations.)
11:53: Conservative 13,806, Liberal 12,083 (NDP: 7,753, PPC: 3,315; Green: 815)
11:55: Conservative 14,075, Liberal 12,410
11:58: Conservative 14,265, Liberal 12,572
12:01: Conservative 14,686, Liberal 13,011
12:03: Conservative 15,499, Liberal 13,539
12:05: Conservative 15,725, Liberal 13,738
12:13: Conservative 16,362, Liberal 14,320
12:16: Conservative 16,441, Liberal 14,400
9:51 a.m.: Conservative 25,920, Liberal 22,410
LAST ELECTION – 2019
Historically the Niagara Falls riding has been a battle between the Liberals and Conservatives, echoing the national stage.
In the 2019 election, Baldinelli won a narrow lead against Kaiser, securing 24,751 votes to Kaiser’s 22,690. Barker received 12,566 votes and the Green party, represented by Sandra O’Connor, took home 3,404 votes.
Last election also saw People’s Party of Canada candidate Alexander Taylor take 968 votes, independent Mike Strange with 4,997 votes and Trisha O’Connor take 358 votes for the Christian Heritage Party.
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