Social media flipped out last week when Niagara Falls was bathed in blue light to celebrate Trump’s defeat in the Democratic sweep of Congress.
But it was fake news.
Yes, the Dems won big. Yeah, the falls turned blue. But, no, the two were not connected, despite what you might have seen on your feed. It was “teal,” not blue. And it was done to promote Alzheimer’s Awareness Month.
Despite Trump, our two nations are joined at the hip economically, as well as at the Niagara River. What happens there matters here. Now more than ever, during the second MAGA presidency and the ridiculous trade war, the current White House started with us innocent beavers.
Trump has stressed Canadians out, caused the unemployment rate to rise, elevated our inflation rate, jumped the price of gas in NOTL, thrown local manufacturing in doubt, impacted vineyards and made the tourists on Queen Street ruefully apologetic.
Have you seen a “Make America Great Again” red ballcap recently? Me neither. He’s done.
So with the massive defeat of the Republican Party on Nov. 3 — considered in political circles an “extinction event” — will people living on this side of the river feel more positive, confident and willing to, say, buy a house?
Let’s face it: the local real estate market has been a swamp since Trump returned to office, immediately imposed tariffs, started babbling about the annexation of Canada and then decided to bomb Iran sending oil prices skyward.
Across the region, sales were down again last month. Prices are four per cent cheaper than this time last year (which was seven per cent lower than the year before) and with more than 2,800 listings, supply has overwhelmed demand. Some properties have been for sale longer than three years. The average sale in NOTL is $50,000, or almost six per cent, cheaper than a year ago.
So, did the blue wave change anything? Do realtors expect we might have a spring market once again when April rolls around?
“Anything that takes some of the uncertainty out of tariffs and the economy helps,” says Jamie Szeibert of Remax Niagara. “A lot of buyers I talk to aren’t short on interest. They’re short on confidence. If the news over the winter feels steadier, I’d expect more of them to act in the spring rather than keep waiting.”
The consensus is clear. Buyers are in control. Sellers are suffering.
“Moving past a major electoral event often clears away a layer of political hesitation,” adds Laura Skene of Sotheby’s. “Historically, once an election concludes, removing that immediate uncertainty provides a psychological baseline that can help restore decision making confidence heading into the new year.”
Confidence — it’s been the missing sauce for two years now. Prices are lower by a meaningful amount. There’s less competition among buyers. Few, if any, bidding wars. Sellers are willing to accept conditions — on financing, home inspection or even the sale of another property.
There’s a ton of listings to choose from. Owners are willing to dicker. And despite a small recent bump, mortgages are historically cheap in the four per cent range.
But wait. What if Trump gets more extreme in his final two years in office? Could things get worse? More tariffs? Will we ever get Ryan Reynolds back? Does it make sense for potential buyers to stay sitting on their hands?
“My advice to buyers worried that prices may be lower next year is, nobody can time the bottom,” says Szeibert. “If you find the right home, can afford it comfortably and plan to stay five years or more, this is a good window.”
People who want to buy and flip, or plan on moving in a couple of years, says Skene, could be crushed by this market.
“But for buyers with secure personal finances and a long-term plan, today’s market offers genuine advantages: the breathing room to evaluate homes thoroughly, negotiate firmly, and secure necessary protections without the stress of competing against multiple bids.”
So what are people buying who have the courage to make an offer?
Move-in ready digs, realtors agree. “Higher contractor, labour, and carrying costs have made casual fixer-uppers impractical for everyday owner occupiers,” says Skene.
Tariffs, of course, have played a role in that. For example, anyone shopping for a “Made In USA” high-end stove has experienced sticker shock first-hand. The newly elected blue guys don’t take control of Congress until January, and Trump retains his veto power and executive orders authority.
Things could be rocky for a while. He’s nuts. Let’s not poke him.
It was teal, Mr. President. Honest.
Garth Turner is a NOTL resident, journalist, author, wealth manager and former federal MP and minister. garth@garth.ca
