Julia Sacco

The Lake Report

Lake Ontario is expected to reach its peak height within days, with the forecasts confirming that there is a very low risk of a repeat of last spring's heavy flooding in Niagara-on-the-Lake.

So residents of NOTL who feared floods again this spring can rest easy, says resident expert Ron Simkus, who closely monitors water levels and reports by a variety of government agencies.

Simkus said his lake level analysis predicts that despite recent rises in water levels, Lake Ontario already has begun to crest.

“The lake has stopped rising and it is going to continue to fall now,” Simkus said in an interview. “Even in the last four days its begun to go down, so I think we can say it’s cresting imminently.”

The Great Lakes International Co-ordinating Committee's six-month forecast released this month confirms the crest, proving to be more optimistic than prior forecasts for March and April.

As of May 6, Lake Ontario was 133 millimetres lower than it was a year ago, when the lake level rose due to a combination of heavy  rain and high water in both the Ottawa and Niagara rivers, Simkus said.

A recent update from the Ottawa River Regulation Planning Board confirmed that flooding will not be a factor this year, elminating one of the factors that could cause a rise in Lake Ontario.

For those still in fear of flooding, Simkus reassures residents that the risk is quite low.

“There’s always potential that you’ll have short-term damage to the shore or flooding. It's possible but not probable.”